Gulf Property Market 2026: The Data Off-Plan Buyers Need
Dubai transactions fell 31% in Q2 2026 but off-plan dropped only 12% and held 76% of activity. What DLD, Betterhomes and ADREC data mean for buyers.
By Dune Estates Editorial · Updated August 23, 2026 · 7 min read
What the Q2 2026 numbers actually say
Dubai’s residential market cooled sharply in the second quarter of 2026, but the cooling landed on the secondary market rather than on off-plan.
According to the Betterhomes Q2 2026 report, residential transactions came in at 34,850, down 31% year on year, with value at AED 84.9 billion, down 45%. Off-plan fell only 12% year on year to 26,338 deals. The secondary market fell 59%. Off-plan therefore finished the quarter at 76% of all activity.
| Q2 2026, Dubai residential | Figure | Year on year |
|---|---|---|
| Total transactions | 34,850 | Down 31% |
| Total value | AED 84.9 bn | Down 45% |
| Off-plan transactions | 26,338 | Down 12% |
| Off-plan share of activity | 76% | Up |
| Secondary market | Not stated | Down 59% |
| Price per sqft on agreed deals | Not stated | About 7% lower |
Two things follow from that table.
The first is that a headline of “Dubai down 31%” describes a market an off-plan buyer is not primarily in. A 12% decline in primary transactions during a quarter when resales dropped 59% is a different event from a broad market retreat.
The second is that the quarter was still the third-highest Q2 on record. The comparison base was a record year, and a fall from an all-time peak to the third-best result in history is a normalisation rather than a downturn.
The 2025 base these falls are measured against
Dubai closed 2025 with more than 270,000 transactions worth AED 917 billion, about USD 249.7 billion, up 20% year on year and a fifth consecutive record year, according to the Dubai Media Office and Dubai Department of Finance.
Within that, DLD data reported via Zawya puts the sales segment at 214,912 transactions worth AED 682.5 billion, up 18.9% in volume and 30.7% in value. Around 193,000 investors were active during the year, including roughly 129,600 new entrants, up 23%.
| Dubai 2025 | Figure |
|---|---|
| Total transactions | 270,000+, AED 917 bn |
| Year on year, value | Up 20% |
| Record years in sequence | 5 |
| Sales transactions | 214,912, AED 682.5 bn |
| Sales volume growth | Up 18.9% |
| Sales value growth | Up 30.7% |
| Active investors | ~193,000, of which ~129,600 new, up 23% |
The value grew faster than the volume, at 30.7% against 18.9%. That gap is a price effect, and it is the reason a subsequent quarter with price per square foot about 7% lower on agreed deals is unsurprising rather than alarming.
Q1 2026 continued at about AED 176.7 billion in sales, with off-plan demand and prices holding firm, according to Gulf News. The turn came in Q2.
Abu Dhabi went the other way
Abu Dhabi did not follow Dubai’s Q2 pattern.
ADREC reported AED 142 billion, about USD 38.7 billion, across 42,814 transactions in 2025, up 48% in value and 52% in volume year on year. Sales accounted for AED 99.4 billion and mortgages AED 42.7 billion, with residential sales at AED 76 billion, up 67%.
Foreign direct investment reached AED 8.2 billion, up 13%. Foreign investment made up 72% of all real estate investment in the investment zones, at AED 54.13 billion, and expatriate plus FDI activity accounted for 62% of residential sales value.
In the first half of 2026 Abu Dhabi transactions reached AED 117 billion with a record foreign investment figure, according to Christie’s Real Estate Dubai.
| Abu Dhabi | Figure |
|---|---|
| 2025 total | AED 142 bn across 42,814 transactions |
| 2025 growth | Up 48% in value, 52% in volume |
| Sales and mortgages | AED 99.4 bn and AED 42.7 bn |
| Residential sales | AED 76 bn, up 67% |
| FDI | AED 8.2 bn, up 13% |
| Foreign share of investment-zone investment | 72%, AED 54.13 bn |
| H1 2026 | AED 117 bn, record foreign investment |
Two markets under one federal tax and visa regime, moving in opposite directions within the same six months, is the most useful single fact in the 2026 data. It undercuts the habit of treating “the UAE market” as one thing, and it makes a case for looking at both emirates rather than defaulting to Dubai. The Dubai versus Abu Dhabi comparison sets the two side by side, and the Yas Island guide covers the Abu Dhabi community where foreign demand is most visible.
What this means if you are buying off-plan
Three practical conclusions come out of the data, and none of them is a prediction.
Primary market resilience is real and measurable. Off-plan fell 12% while resales fell 59% in the same quarter and in the same city. Payment plans spread the cost over construction, which changes buyer behaviour in a softening market, and developer pricing on new launches does not reprice the way a resale asking price does.
Prices did move. Price per square foot on agreed deals was about 7% lower in Q2 2026. If you are buying at a launch, that softening gives you a stronger negotiating position on payment terms than you would have had a year ago, and it is a reason to ask for a longer post-handover tail rather than to expect a discount on the headline price.
Volume alone does not tell you about your unit. A 31% fall in citywide transactions says nothing about the specific project, developer or community you are considering. Check the DLD registration and escrow account of the project, the service charge for the building, and the developer’s delivery record. Under Dubai Law No. 8 of 2007 your payments go into a dedicated RERA-approved escrow account and are released only against certified construction milestones, and that protection is unaffected by the market cycle. The Dubai off-plan buying guide sets out the checks in order.
For a slower market, the shape of the payment plan matters more than usual. Structures range from 80/20 and 60/40 to Danube’s 1% monthly with a post-handover tail of roughly 30 to 35 months and Samana’s terms of up to about eight years. The payment plans guide compares them, and the off-plan versus ready guide covers the trade-off the Q2 numbers illustrate so clearly.
Frequently Asked Questions
The data does not support that description. Betterhomes reported Q2 2026 residential transactions at 34,850, down 31% year on year, with value down 45% to AED 84.9 billion, but the quarter was still the third-highest Q2 on record and followed a record 2025 of more than 270,000 transactions worth AED 917 billion. Price per square foot on agreed deals was about 7% lower.
No. In Q2 2026 off-plan transactions fell 12% year on year to 26,338 deals, while the secondary market fell 59%. Off-plan accounted for 76% of all residential activity in the quarter.
Abu Dhabi grew. ADREC reported AED 142 billion across 42,814 transactions in 2025, up 48% in value and 52% in volume, and H1 2026 transactions reached AED 117 billion with a record foreign investment figure, while Dubai cooled in Q2 2026.
More than 270,000 transactions worth AED 917 billion, about USD 249.7 billion, up 20% year on year and a fifth consecutive record year per the Dubai Media Office. The sales segment alone was 214,912 transactions worth AED 682.5 billion, with around 193,000 active investors including roughly 129,600 new ones.
We do not forecast prices. What the data shows is that price per square foot on agreed deals was about 7% lower in Q2 2026 while off-plan volumes held up far better than resales, which strengthens a buyer's position on payment terms at launch. Judge the specific project on its DLD registration, escrow account, service charge and developer delivery record rather than on citywide volume figures.
Next steps
Read the market data for what it is: context for a decision, not the decision itself. The single most useful takeaway from Q2 2026 is that off-plan and secondary behaved as two different markets in the same city, and an off-plan buyer should not read a secondary-market headline as their own.
Before you commit, verify the project rather than the market. Check DLD registration and the escrow account named in the sale and purchase agreement, get the current service charge for the building, and ask for the developer’s delivery record on completed phases.
If you are choosing between markets rather than projects, compare the two emirates on fees, yields and cycle position in the Dubai versus Abu Dhabi comparison, or widen the search with the UAE versus Oman comparison. Verify all contract terms with your own lawyer before funds move.
Get a personal off-plan shortlist
Tell us your budget, target city (Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Oman) and goal. We reply within one business day with matched projects and next steps.